Warsaw, building by building: how much energy is each one likely to use?
Every one of Warsaw's 167,102 buildings, coloured by the model's estimate of its energy performance. Click a building to see the evidence: the best Mapillary photo of its facade and the orthophoto with the camera's view of the wall. Switch to with a certificate to see only the buildings that hold a real energy performance certificate, and how close the model gets to them.
Buildings: BDOT10k (GUGiK) · Certificates: Centralny rejestr charakterystyki energetycznej budynków (dane.gov.pl) · Estimates: OKRA model v1, trained on the certified buildings of eight Polish cities — modelled estimates, not energy performance certificates · Photos: Mapillary contributors, CC BY-SA 4.0, buildings so far · Orthophoto © GUGiK (Geoportal) · Basemap © OpenFreeMap, © OpenMapTiles, © OpenStreetMap contributors
Contact: Maxim Oweyssi · Jakub Červenka
How close does the model get to real certificates?
The buildings with a certificate were part of the model's training, so comparing the map against them would flatter it. Instead, Warsaw was cut into 2 km blocks and each block predicted by a model trained without it; the other seven cities stayed in training throughout. Below, one plot per indicator: each column is a band of certificate values, and every certified building in it adds its whole out-of-fold posterior — the model's spread of likely values, not one number — up the column. The shading is shared across the whole plot, so it shows both where the model puts each band and where most of the buildings are. The dashed line is perfect agreement; hover for the numbers.
Spatial 5-fold cross-validation of the same pipeline (fussade, pl-pool → Warsaw, 2026-10-06); each posterior enters as a log-normal with the CV's median and 10–90 % interval; certificate: the register median per building. The model does not yet make real use of the orthophotos or the Mapillary facades; on this evidence the photos add nothing measurable so far.